Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google)

Product Management Shifts from Information Moving to Building

Previously, product management was often characterized by a "zero interest era" where the role primarily involved moving information between various stakeholders and leadership. This created a challenging environment where product managers felt immense stress from having significant responsibility without corresponding authority, despite being well-compensated and working in a rapidly expanding industry.

The industry has since undergone a significant transformation, now experiencing what some describe as a renaissance. Product managers are increasingly empowered to directly build and have a tangible impact, reducing their reliance on numerous intermediaries. This shift allows for a more direct connection between their ideas, testing, and understanding customer needs.

This evolution means product managers can more effectively leverage their product instincts, leading to greater job satisfaction and engagement. The focus has transitioned from merely conveying information to actively creating and validating products, a change that is particularly benefiting and exciting the strongest builders within the field.

The function had become extremely focused on responsibility without authority, and so that is the greatest form of workplace stress.

Senior product leaders are more satisfied but also more stressed by the pace of industry change.

Compared to a few years ago, senior product leaders report greater job satisfaction and more career choice. This positive shift is attributed to their roles becoming more engaging and impactful, moving beyond previous challenges of decision-making paralysis within organizations.

Despite this increased satisfaction, stress levels have also risen among top product leaders. The nature of this stress has evolved; it's less about navigating internal organizational hurdles and more about balancing personal life and keeping pace with the rapidly changing industry, leading to concerns about falling behind.

While individual leaders at the top are thriving, the broader product industry itself is under significant stress. This collective anxiety about constant change and the pressure to adapt contributes to a general feeling of stress, even for those who are otherwise doing well in their careers.

I think that they're more stressed, but I think they're stressed because they wish they had more time to feed the yellow lab at night, which is a different form of stress than the stress that they experienced in the past, which is, I don't know if my point or my team is gonna get through the malaise of decisioning that exists here.

Product Management is Evolving Towards Judgment-Focused Roles

Nikhyl Singhal recently hosted a meetup for 125 heads of product in San Francisco, where attendees showcased innovative internal tools built with AI. Many were excited about using "chief of staff apps" and other software to enhance their productivity and streamline operations within their companies.

A significant shift was observed in the way product decisions are made, how prioritization is determined, and how information moves within organizations. This approach felt completely new compared to just a few years ago, indicating a rapid evolution in product management practices.

The central theme emerging from these discussions is that product leaders are increasingly dedicating their time to "judgment," while actively automating or "obsoleting" mechanical tasks by writing software and implementing AI agents. This allows them to focus on higher-level strategic thinking.

This rapid transformation is astonishing, with much of the current operational language and tool usage being unthinkable just twelve months prior. The speed of change suggests that predicting future developments even a year out remains challenging, emphasizing a dynamic and quickly changing landscape for product management.

You're spending all your time just focusing on judgment, and you're spending all your time taking anything that can be obsoleted and writing software around it.

Product Leaders Will Focus on Judgment as AI Automates Mechanical Product Tasks

Product leaders are increasingly expected to drive judgment and proactively use software and AI to obsolete traditional, mechanical product development tasks. This shift recognizes that many of the less enjoyable aspects of product management are precisely what AI agents are poised to automate.

The integration of AI and agents is rapidly changing how product decisions are made. Companies are expected to obsolete most mechanical product-building tasks within two years, leading to a substantial increase in productivity.

This automation will dramatically lower the cost of testing and implementing product changes. It's anticipated that products will see ten to a hundred times more changes presented than ever before. In this environment of rapid iteration and low-cost experimentation, the importance of human judgment becomes paramount for guiding product direction.

most of the stuff that you didn't like doing Are the things that AI is really taking a real, crack at.

Defining Judgment for Product Managers

Judgment for product managers involves evaluating proposed changes to a product to determine if they are beneficial or detrimental. This includes assessing if a particular product change is the right direction among alternatives.

It's also about building sustainable and differentiated products. PMs exercise judgment when customers request various features, considering the impact on brand and maintainability, rather than just building numerous custom versions. The focus shifts from individual features to the overall system or platform that enables capabilities.

Ultimately, judgment helps decide whether a product or feature is truly worth building and releasing, ensuring it meets necessary criteria for success and long-term viability.

it's not about the feature, it's around the system that we're putting together, the platform, if you will, that's, you know, kind of enabling capability

AI will eliminate bad software experiences

AI tools like Codex and Claude are capable of suggesting and implementing product improvements by simply asking "How can we make this product experience better?". These tools can act as a "super skill" to automatically fix and maintain software in app stores, enhancing user experiences and maintainability.

Many applications are currently built by engineers who may not be top-tier or work for companies that don't prioritize software quality. AI provides a solution by making the capabilities of the "best engineers" accessible to everyone, allowing them to improve app functionality and design through simple prompts.

This advancement extends to improving even deeply entrenched legacy systems, such as those running on mainframes. Previously, touching old, complex code written by engineers who are no longer around was considered high-risk. AI can now go in and improve these long-neglected systems, changing the risk calculus and bringing optimism for significant enhancements to taken-for-granted poor experiences.

Everyone has the best engineers available now, and it's just the English to ask them to build the better thing or build a better app.

Modern skills and AI-first talent are reshaping company staffing

Companies are currently evaluating their staffing levels, questioning past hiring decisions where headcounts doubled without proportional output increases. Historically, large tech companies like Google needed far fewer people to maintain core operations than they employed.

The emergence of AI is accelerating this reassessment, creating a "judgment day" where companies realize their existing staff often lack the necessary skills for an AI-driven future. This leads to a prediction of significant workforce restructuring.

Over the next 12-24 months, many companies are expected to shed large numbers of employees and then rehire for specialized "AI-first" roles. This will result in a net reduction of staff but a profound shift in required competencies.

This period of transition will be challenging, impacting the job market significantly as the demand for modern, hands-on, and opinionated builders intensifies, while past brand names on resumes become less relevant than current skills.

The eight thousand people they're gonna hire are gonna all be AI first.

Product Management Shifts to Favor Hands-On Builders Over Information Movers

The traditional role of a product manager is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from "information movers" towards "builders." Information movers, who primarily facilitate communication and coordinate tasks, are becoming obsolete. In contrast, builders are hands-on individuals who enjoy creating and directly impacting products.

The rise of AI tools now empowers product managers to directly participate in the building process, allowing them to create designs or even code without waiting for others. This offers a level of immediate satisfaction and visible progress that was often missing in past PM roles, where responsibility often outstripped direct authority to fix things.

This shift is opening up new career paths for builders beyond traditional product executive roles. For instance, more product leaders are choosing to become founding CEOs. Forward-thinking companies are also hiring product managers for roles like Chief HR Officer (CHRO), valuing their judgment, empowerment skills, and ability to build functions.

Conversely, product managers who identify as non-builders—those who don't love the hands-on creation aspect and entered the field for lucrative opportunities or communication-focused work—may face significant challenges. Approximately half of current product professionals might need to adapt their skills or explore opportunities outside the tech industry.

Now you can participate in the joy. You can create a design. You don't have to wait for the designer and convince the designer to go and actually work through this or to put your stuff on a backlog. You don't have to do that.

Product Managers gain leverage by building internal software to automate processes.

As engineering teams accelerate their pace and ship more features, Product Managers are increasingly squeezed by the sheer volume of ideas and tasks. Instead of focusing on contributing code to customer-facing products, PMs can achieve greater leverage by building internal software.

This internal tooling automates time-consuming tasks like product reviews, daily stand-ups, and status reports. For example, some companies are already implementing fully automated systems for product reviews, freeing up PMs to focus on higher-level judgment and decision-making.

The core idea is to scale PM efficiency through software, transforming the product operating system. By building tools that streamline internal processes, PMs can better manage the rapid output of their teams and provide more detailed, timely information to stakeholders, leading to happier bosses and reduced manual work like status reports.

This shift represents a different direction for PMs, where their expertise is applied to improving the internal mechanics of product development rather than solely delivering external features. It allows PMs to focus their judgment on critical changes rather than administrative overload.

I hate doing status reports. So now I just wrote something and my boss is happier 'cause they get more detail.

AI Wave Impacts Diversity and Shifts Focus from Brand to Current Skills

The rapid pace of the AI wave is unfortunately leading to a setback in diversity within tech hiring. As companies hire fewer people and the demand for fast-paced work intensifies, there's a tendency to recruit individuals who closely resemble the existing team in terms of age, gender, and ethnic background. This creates a challenging environment for those, like women in their power years, who might not be able to dedicate extensive nights and weekends to keeping up with new cloud code.

A surprising shift is the diminishing importance of personal brands and past company affiliations on a resume. For the last decade, working for established brands at scale was a strong indicator of competence. However, the methods of building software and delivering products have become fundamentally different with AI. Interviewers are now more interested in current tool proficiency and problem-solving judgment rather than past achievements from five or ten years ago.

This means being 'modern' in your product delivery capabilities is now paramount. A resume filled with logos from well-known companies might even be a disadvantage if those companies aren't perceived as AI-forward. Even within large, established organizations, the individual's contribution might be obscured, making it harder to showcase direct building skills relevant to today's landscape.

The industry's long-standing maturation, which emphasized leverage, scale, organizing, and enabling others, is now being challenged. What was once seen as career progression—moving away from direct building to managing the 'factory'—might be flipping. With AI, there's a renewed focus on individual opinion and the ability to directly build, suggesting a substantial re-evaluation of valued skills.

your brands don't matter as much as how modern you are in your- Your ability to deliver product.

Overcoming Psychological Barriers to Reinvention

Humans are not naturally designed for easy change. Unlike children who constantly learn new skills without fear of mistakes, adults are often trained to find a happy medium in life and make as few changes as possible, whether in relationships or careers. This creates a deep-seated mental block against the idea of reinventing oneself.

The resistance to change stems from a feeling of exhaustion and a sense that 'this wasn't the deal.' Many feel they've worked hard to achieve stability in their career, income, and personal life, and the thought of starting over or continuously adapting feels unwarranted and taxing.

During one's 'power years,' the challenge of reinvention is compounded by the 'equally disappoint everyone' algorithm. Individuals often juggle multiple demands from family, work, health, and friends, leading to a prioritization mechanism where one tries to manage limited time by equally distributing their disappointment, making it hard to allocate significant time to continuous personal reinvention.

Further complicating matters, reinvention is not a one-time event; the target continuously moves, meaning there's no 'flow state' after adapting. Ironically, those who were most successful at mastering the 'old game' often find reinvention the hardest, as their current success and the belief that 'this is working' provides little incentive to embrace new approaches, even as the landscape shifts.

your goal when you're in your power years is to equally disappoint everyone in your life, which sounds like a horrible statement, but it's true.

Every product person must find the courage to cross the mental threshold for reinvention.

The most important advice for anyone in a product role is to acknowledge that the nature of work is changing. This requires courage and belief to accept new methodologies and adapt to evolving demands.

It's essential to consciously prioritize staying modern and current, making a deliberate decision to cross a "mental threshold" towards reinvention. This commitment should be prioritized above all else.

Embracing reinvention is no longer optional; it is the imperative of the current professional landscape. Individuals must proactively seek ways to update their skills and approaches to remain relevant and effective.

The Current Chaos in Product Management is a Temporary Transformation

The product management landscape is undergoing rapid, almost chaotic changes, largely driven by advancements in AI. This period can feel overwhelming, reminiscent of how even the heads of major AI labs expressed a desire to slow down development, yet acknowledged the game theory prevents it. This intense pressure to adapt is a core reality for product professionals right now.

This current shift is not unprecedented; it mirrors past industry transformations. For instance, the discipline of product management born in hardware companies like HP and Cisco with long engineering cycles was fundamentally reshaped by internet companies like Google. Google's APM program was created specifically to train a new breed of product managers, as existing models didn't fit. This transition was initially jarring, but over time, new methods, structures, and routines became standard.

Product managers should view the current turbulence as a similar transitional period. While the next few years will bring continuous evolution in roles, responsibilities, and tools—with new agents and blurring lines—this chaos will eventually settle. Companies will rebuild processes, and consistency will return, much like after previous industry resets.

The key is to lean into these changes now. This isn't a commitment to an endless cycle of increasing speed, but rather a crucial window to stay current and relevant. Those who embrace building in this evolving environment will be happier and more impactful, while those who resist may find their roles becoming obsolete as the industry progresses.

But after a couple years, there's gonna be some routine to it, there's gonna be some training, there's gonna be consistency. The job you had next is gonna look like the previous job.

Discovering Joy and Combating Burnout by Building with AI

Many product managers feel stuck and fearful about rapid industry changes, often experiencing more yellow or red days than green ones. However, a significant shift toward building with new AI tools can transform this, leading to moments of personal joy and combating burnout. This transition allows individuals to move from being on the sidelines to actively engaged, turning work into a source of passion and energy.

The initial "moment of joy" in using new AI tools is often personal and empowering. Examples include building a custom app for a partner, automating an inbox with a chief of staff app, or managing home lights with a new system. This hands-on creation fosters excitement, making people feel "hooked" and less exhausted by the monotony of traditional product management tasks.

For instance, Nikhyl Singhal actively uses AI to build various applications for his community. This includes creating agents for matching people based on their 'haves' and 'wants' to facilitate connections, developing automated next-generation recruiting tools that match job seekers with roles, and even building an AI to answer community questions based on his content. He sees product management evolving to be more about building and joy than solely administrative work.

Leaders can foster this newfound excitement by encouraging their staff to find these moments of joy. This contagious enthusiasm not only drives individual satisfaction but also creates a more dynamic and energetic team environment. By embracing the builder mindset, product managers can redefine their roles and experience work as a fulfilling, joyful activity.

That moment is when they cross the threshold between fear to joy, and joy is the biggest antidote to burnout, and it creates opportunity because the moment you have joy, the moment it doesn't feel like work.

Adopting an Obsolescence Mindset and Other Strategies to Thrive

To thrive in a rapidly changing work environment, especially with the advent of AI, adopt an "obsolescence mindset." This means constantly seeking to automate or delegate any tasks you perform that can be replicated, similar to how a great engineer aims to make their own work obsolete. This approach frees you to focus on higher-value, more strategic contributions and adapt to new challenges.

Embracing this mindset can transform your job into a more joyful experience by removing mundane or less-loved responsibilities. While change can be daunting, the speaker suggests that the things being changed are often the parts of your job you don't enjoy. A proactive stance on self-obsolescence is crucial, as many professionals are predicted to be in different roles within the next five years due to evolving industry demands.

Beyond the obsolescence mindset, other strategies are vital for thriving. Increase your pace and bring an intense level of energy, similar to starting a new job or relationship. It's also critical to swallow your ego, being open to taking on hands-on individual contributor roles or even positions that might seem 'smaller' than previous titles to stay current. Finally, maintain a long-term "skip job" focus, prioritizing continuous learning and relevance for future premier opportunities over immediate status or job titles.

an engineer is someone who obsoletes themselves from everything they do.

Product Managers as Agents of Change in a Blurring World

Product managers are set to become crucial "agents of change" across every industry, extending beyond traditional tech sectors. This is because PMs possess a unique combination of a broad organizational perspective and a technical understanding, making them adept at driving transformation. They are often early adopters of new tools and methodologies, positioning them as key internal change leaders.

As product development processes become highly sophisticated within tech, other industries, ranging from marketing and sales to manufacturing and education, will recognize their own need for similar modernization. These diverse organizations will actively seek product leaders to help them innovate and avoid obsolescence, viewing PMs as essential for future relevance.

Concurrently, the traditional lines separating product, design, data science, and engineering roles are blurring. Professionals from these adjacent fields who exhibit strong judgment, effective communication, and a drive to stay current will increasingly flow into product management. For example, designers might transition from defining visual interfaces to shaping the entire product experience itself.

This rapid evolution and the convergence of roles will lead to a significant movement of talent, with individuals flowing both into and out of product management. This dynamic is a direct response to the growing demand for product-led thinking across various sectors, and it also contributes to the anxiety felt by many professionals navigating these career shifts.

they thought they'd buried us, they didn't know that we were seeds.

AI Will Simplify Product Alignment by Providing Ground Truth

Product managers often spend considerable time on internal alignment, which traditionally involves disseminating information and managing various interpretations or "spins" on data. This process can be inefficient and tedious, burying crucial "ground truth."

Artificial intelligence is set to dramatically improve this by providing direct access to ground truth. Leaders, such as a CEO, will be able to query AI agents directly about product performance, customer desires, or system impacts, getting unadulterated facts instantly.

This advancement will remove the necessity for PMs to act as information conduits, eliminating the "theatrics" often present in larger organizations where data is filtered and re-packaged. PMs can then shift their focus from moving information to developing strong opinions and engaging in more impactful, data-backed debates.

The result is a clearer, more effective alignment process. The role of senior product leadership, often associated with back-to-back meetings focused on information transfer, is expected to become more appealing as the less desirable, information-gathering aspects are automated.

If you dissect what alignment looks like, a lot of alignment was getting people the right information, the ground level truth. That problem is dramatically better. That part of the job, frankly, just absolutely sucked.

Engineering's AI-Driven Evolution and Design's Plateau

Engineering roles are undergoing a significant transformation. As artificial intelligence increasingly handles the coding aspect, engineers are shifting towards more product management-like responsibilities. Their focus is moving to defining 'what to build,' assessing product direction, and determining success metrics. Engineers retain an advantage through their systemic thinking and ability to consider obsolescence effectively.

Surprisingly, the number of design roles is plateauing, a trend that goes against the expectation that design would become more crucial as products proliferate. Unlike engineering or product management, AI's current impact doesn't easily turn someone into a 'great designer.' The industry's current understanding of design might be a contributing factor to this stagnation.

A key reason for design's plateau could be the industry's tendency to conflate design with 'production' or 'pixel generation' rather than with 'taste-making.' Many companies, even when hiring for design leadership, appear to prioritize production needs over the more nuanced skill of creating true aesthetic and experiential taste. This bias is impacting hiring strategies in the current era.

I worry that in design, maybe the industry itself conflates design with more production and not with taste.

Embracing Optimism and Joy Amidst Chaos

The current period is marked by significant chaos, prompting a re-evaluation of many aspects of life, including how joy is defined. While challenging, this time is also seen as deeply interesting, offering unique experiences for those in operational roles.

Despite the relentless pace and widespread exhaustion, there is substantial room for optimism. It requires individuals to tap into their internal reserves to navigate a period of intense change and overcome the initial fatigue.

Finding this moment of joy is crucial, as its positive effects are infectious once achieved. Conversely, delaying this effort makes it progressively harder to 'cross that chasm' of change and exhaustion.

Nikhyl observes that his community is moving from simple exhaustion to 'smiling exhaustion,' indicating that while the demands remain high, people are finding ways to experience some joy amidst the ongoing challenges.

I would just say that there's a lot of room to be optimistic right now, but you have to find it within yourself to recognize that there is a small period of change and exhaustion that's required to find that moment of joy.

Nikhyl Singhal Shares Non-Reading Habits, TV Show Picks, Self-Driving Tesla Insights, and Reinterprets Einstein's Quote for the AI Era

Nikhyl Singhal admits he's not a reader, prioritizing 'vibe coding' and processing real-time information from AI agents and social media over traditional books and podcasts. He did, however, find 'James'—the story of Huckleberry Finn told from Jim's perspective—fascinating for its fresh take on a classic story and its haunting adult themes.

For TV, Singhal recommends 'Paradise' (season 1 and 2), an apocalyptic character drama exploring individual motivations in challenging times. He also suggests 'Lioness' on Paramount Plus, a well-written show about a covert CIA group and the commitment to a larger cause. These are shows he has to pay attention to, a new bar for quality entertainment.

His favorite recent product discovery is Tesla's self-driving feature. Despite not being a 'car guy,' he found that the technology, which he uses 95% of the time, unexpectedly alleviates mild driving anxiety he wasn't aware he had, reducing a long-standing source of stress. He notes that the latest software (around release 14.2) has significantly improved, though many people who tried earlier versions might be reluctant to revisit it.

Singhal's lifelong motto, taken from his high school yearbook, is Albert Einstein's 'Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.' He reinterprets this quote in the age of AI, suggesting that AI will handle the 'perspiration' or hard work, allowing humans to focus more on inspiration and creative thought.

Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.

Nikhyl Singhal introduces the Skip ecosystem, featuring AI agents for product professional career guidance.

Nikhyl Singhal details his 'Skip' ecosystem, a collection of platforms designed to support product professionals. This ecosystem includes Skip.show, a podcast providing operator-driven content, and Skip.community, a highly curated group with an extensive waitlist, focusing on trust and shared learning among members.

A new addition to the ecosystem is Skip.help, launching soon and powered by SuperMe. This platform features AI agents trained on the collective wisdom of about 50 community leaders. Users can ask questions ranging from interview preparation and navigating current work environments to specific challenges like building a chief of staff app, receiving responses informed by this aggregated expertise.

The ecosystem also includes Skip.coach, which aims to share this valuable wisdom with a broader audience beyond the curated community. Nikhyl has secured various 'Skip' domains, like Skip.coach, Skip.community, Skip.show, and Skip.help, to create a comprehensive resource for product professionals seeking guidance and support in their careers.

you can go and ask a question. It might be preparing for an interview, it might be a question around navigating your current environment, it might even be, you know, how do I build a chief of staff app? And fifty of us, not just me, will respond